Nomura: Zelgen (688266.SH) Sales Ramp-Up; Overseas Deal Validates Innovation
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Nomura maintained a Buy rating on Zelgen (688266.SH) and raised its target price from RMB 124.94 to RMB 135.77, implying a 33.8% upside. In 2025, revenue surged 52.07% YoY to RMB 810 million, primarily propelled by the inclusion of recombinant human thrombin in the National Reimbursement Drug List and the market launch of jaktinib tablets. However, the net loss widened by RMB 25 million YoY to RMB 163 million due to increased marketing and R&D expenditures.
In December 2025, Zelgen entered a global strategic partnership and option licensing agreement with AbbVie for ZG006. The company received a $100 million upfront payment in January 2026 and could earn subsequent near-term clinical milestone payments of up to $60 million, option-related payments of up to $107.5 million, and potential milestone payments totaling up to $1.075 billion. This transaction strongly validates Zelgen's innovative capabilities.
Driven by the AbbVie upfront payment, Nomura revised its 2026 revenue forecast upward to RMB 2.035 billion and its net profit forecast to RMB 606 million. The 2027 forecasts remain unchanged, and 2028 estimates were introduced. The valuation relies on a risk-adjusted DCF model with a 3% terminal growth rate and a 9.02% WACC. Key catalysts include clinical data readouts for ZG005 and ZG006.