Nomura China Autos & EVs: Weak September; EU Hybrid Cap and Export VAT Rebate Cut
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
Key Points
- The inventory alert index rose to 63.2% in September, its highest since February 2024.
- The EU plans to cap imports of Chinese hybrids at roughly 350,000 units per year from December 2026.
- China's Ministry of Finance will cut the VAT rebate on NEV exports from 13% to 9% from 1 April 2027.
- BYD, SAIC, Chery and Geely are currently the top four Chinese automakers by EU sales.
Outlook
Exports remain strong—Nomura projects nearly 10 million passenger vehicle exports in 2026, up around 70%—but tightening export policy could accelerate capacity rationalization and consolidation, pushing carmakers toward overseas localization. Domestic demand may recover in 2027, though high bases and China–EU trade negotiations could slow overseas growth. The report names no specific recommendations.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
Exhibit 3
Exhibit 4
Exhibit 5
Exhibit 6
Exhibit 7
Exhibit 8
Exhibit 9
Exhibit 10
