Goldman Sachs China Education June 2026 Tracker: MOE Student Demographics Update; Learning Tablet ASP Hike a Bright Spot Against Pressured Volume and Seasonally Softer Tutoring App Engagement
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
Key Views
Non-academic tutoring institutions continued consolidating, falling 0.2% month-over-month to 117,100 in June. Within the AI learning tablet sector, combined GMV across six major brands fell 15% year-over-year. However, TAL's tablet ASP surged 26% to roughly RMB 4,100, a notable bright spot. TAL launched its premium T6 series (priced RMB 6,900-12,000) on June 30. Mobile engagement seasonally softened, though Doubao Aixue DAU skyrocketed 161% year-over-year. Separately, Canada and Australia's China student visa issuances fell 7% year-to-date, an improvement from the 16% drop in 2025. East Buy's Douyin GMV grew 42% to approximately RMB 901 million.
Outlook
TAL and New Oriental are scheduled to report May-quarter earnings on July 29/30. The premium T6 series is expected to drive further ASP increases in July.
Recommended Securities
Goldman maintains Buy ratings on New Oriental (EDU/9901.HK; Target: US$65/HK$50) and TAL (Target: US$14.7). It maintains Sell ratings on East Buy (1797.HK; Target: HK$12.4) and Offcn Education (002607.SZ).
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
Exhibit 3
Exhibit 4
Exhibit 5
Exhibit 6
Exhibit 7
Exhibit 8
