Citi: China Automakers: Week-4 August NEV Orders Below Expectations

Citi's dealer survey shows China NEV orders fell 6% week-on-week in the fourth week of August (August 24–30), with month-to-date orders down 20%, likely below investor expectations. Still, the industry order-to-sales ratio improved 1% m/m to 1.30x in July, leading Citi to expect positive m/m growth in August NEV retail sales. By brand, XPeng's order-to-sales ratio jumped 235% m/m to 3.76x—highest among major OEMs—while BYD, Tesla, Li Auto and NIO held at 1.49x, 1.35x, 1.21x and 1.17x; Huawei HarmonyOS, Zeekr and Xiaomi sat at 0.65x, 0.74x and 0.86x. BYD's 1H26 blended ASP rose 8% y/y and q/q, up about CNY 11,000. Second-generation Blade battery waits of one to two months may hit short-term BYD orders, but Citi still expects monthly shipments to grow 3–4% m/m as capacity ramps. BYD H-shares (1211.HK; HKD 87.2) and A-shares (002594.SZ; CNY 88.2) are both rated 1 (Buy) with target prices of HKD 142 and CNY 131, based on 1.2x 2026E PEG and +25% net profit CAGR, implying 30x/25x 2026E/27E PE. Downside risks include weaker NEV passenger or bus sales, a slower SkyRail ramp, renewed long-term capex cycles and unexpected cash-flow issues. Citi acts as market maker in BYD listed shares.