Goldman Sachs ASML Holding (ASML.AS): Key takeaways from HQ visit
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Following a comprehensive visit to ASML Holding headquarters, Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its constructive thesis on the stock. ASML's management reiterated strong confidence in its 2026 revenue guidance of EUR 350-400 billion, driven primarily by robust High-NA EUV demand and sustained logic chip customer orders.
The company expects to ship over 60 EUV systems in 2026, including approximately 10 High-NA EUV units priced at roughly EUR 400 million each, substantially higher than standard EUV systems at EUR 180 million. This favorable product mix shift, combined with an estimated 15% growth in service revenue from an expanding installed base, is projected to elevate the 2026 gross margin to a range of 56-58%, exceeding prior market consensus of 55%. Logic chip giants like TSMC and Intel are anchoring this EUV demand, while memory customer requirements remain stable.
Conversely, DUV revenue is anticipated to decline as Chinese demand softens. ASML also reaffirmed its 2025 expectation of roughly 50 EUV shipments. Management remains highly optimistic regarding 2027 and beyond, citing the accelerating necessity of EUV technology for sub-3nm process nodes. Goldman Sachs maintained its Buy rating with a target price of EUR 1,100, citing ASML's unassailable technological moat and the ongoing advanced manufacturing investment cycle. Primary risks involve potential client order delays, tightening export controls, and unexpected shifts in technology roadmaps.