Goldman Sachs | Global Shipbuilding: Global Shipyard Logbook January – Stronger Orders vs. Higher Capacity Expansion
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Global newbuild ordering experienced a robust conclusion to 2025, with December demonstrating the strongest monthly performance of the year across both volume and value metrics. The total order value surged 26% month-over-month and 74% year-over-year to $27.4 billion, while order volume reached 8.2 million compensated gross tons (CGT), marking a 68% year-over-year increase. This widespread growth was primarily driven by strong demand for tankers, bulk carriers, LNG carriers, and cruise ships.
Consequently, the global orderbook expanded to 178 million CGT, providing 3.5 years of forward cover. The Clarkson Newbuilding Price Index also rebounded by 0.2% month-over-month, marking its first increase since February 2025. Chinese shipyards recaptured a dominant 70% global market share during the month, while Korean and Japanese shipyards secured 18% and 2%, respectively.
On the supply side, Hengli Heavy Industry announced a private placement to raise RMB 7 billion for its Phase III shipyard expansion. This development is expected to increase global shipbuilding capacity by roughly 2%, with infrastructure completion targeted for mid-2026.
Goldman Sachs has revised its 2026 to 2028 newbuild order forecasts upward by 14%, 8%, and 3%, respectively. Furthermore, the firm narrowed its projected newbuild price decline from the 2024 peak to the 2028 trough from 14% to 10%. Regarding specific equities, Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target price for Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YAZG.SI; Buy) from S$4.00 to S$4.25. The firm also maintains Buy ratings on Namura (7014.T) and Mitsui E&S (7003.T), citing benefits from an aging global fleet requiring renewal and the broader revitalization of the Japanese shipbuilding industry.