Goldman Sachs China Education Tracker, August 2026 — Learning Tablet GMV Weakens on High Bases and Price Increases; Overseas Study Visas Stabilize on Canada Rebound
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Goldman Sachs' August 2026 China education tracker shows AI learning tablet demand weakening: combined GMV for eight brands fell 27% yoy (-39% mom; July: +5%) on high bases and price increases. TAL continued gaining share with GMV of about Rmb360m (-22% yoy); its 2QFY27 (August quarter) tracked online GMV fell 17% yoy versus Goldman's -5% estimate, as volumes dropped 37% while ASPs rose 31%. AI education apps stayed buoyant: Doubao Learning's DAU was up 152% yoy, China's seventh-largest AI-native app, and Gauth generated roughly $0.85m of August billings (+20% yoy; $13.6m LTM). Traditional supply kept contracting, with non-academic tutoring licenses down 1.7% yoy to 116,700. Overseas study visas stabilized: combined Canada/Australia/US/UK visas rose 1% YTD (2025: -20%), led by Canada's 36% 1H26 rebound, though US visas fell 34%. East Buy's 2HFY26 revenue of Rmb3.4bn met estimates and adjusted net profit of Rmb371m (+112% yoy) beat; despite raised FY27-28E forecasts and a higher HK$15.0 target price (15x CY26E P/E), it stays Sell on relative valuation (38.8% downside). Coverage: Buy New Oriental (SOTP TP $70/HK$55) and TAL; Sell East Buy and Offcn Education.
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