Nomura: Downgrades 2026 Global PC Shipment Forecast to a 10.3% Decline
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Nomura has sharply downgraded its 2026 global PC shipment forecast, now projecting a 10.3% year-over-year contraction, a significant drop from the previously estimated 2.8% decline. This revision reflects surging memory and CPU costs, leading to higher retail prices, alongside supply mismatches. Desktop shipments are expected to fall 12.5%, while notebooks could decline 9.5%. Although first-half notebook volumes benefited from pull-in demand, the second half faces an 18.8% collapse as rising retail prices stifle end-demand.
Global smartphone shipments are forecast to fall 12.9%, driven by memory cost inflation that forces manufacturers to cancel low-end projects. Apple stands out, with iPhone shipments expected to post single-digit growth thanks to its premium positioning and no price increase strategy. Meanwhile, Xiaomi shipments could drop 20% as the company cancels most budget models.
Apple's $599 MacBook Neo is poised to disrupt the entry-level laptop market. Nomura projects shipments of 8–10 million units in 2026, driving total MacBook volume from 23 million to 26.7 million units. The investment theme strongly favors Apple-related supply chain names over non-Apple peers. Nomura reiterates Buy ratings on Hon Hai, Largan, Zhen Ding, Luxshare, AAC Technologies, and Cowell, while maintaining Neutral ratings on Lenovo and Xiaomi.