Goldman Sachs China Spirits Tracker: Moutai Accelerates Pricing, Channel, and DTC Reforms; Anticipating More Industry Price Adjustments
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Goldman Sachs notes that Kweichow Moutai is accelerating its pricing and distribution channel reforms, significantly expanding direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales of Feitian and ultra-premium products through the i-Moutai platform to foster market-based pricing. Moutai has officially adjusted the suggested retail prices for key non-standard SKUs and modified ex-factory prices based on channel feedback. Goldman Sachs views these decisive actions as a bottoming signal for the broader spirits industry, expecting the accelerated pricing and profitability normalization to drive improved channel discipline and destocking.
Following the launch of Feitian on i-Moutai on January 1, the platform garnered 2.7 million new users and over 400,000 transaction users within the first nine days, generating roughly RMB 4.5 billion in sales. However, overall demand for premium spirits remains soft year-over-year, despite sequential improvements linked to the New Year holiday. Industry feedback suggests current sell-through volumes are only 50% to 70% of pre-anti-corruption cycle levels, indicating that a definitive industry bottom may not materialize until the second half of 2026. Consequently, spirits companies face mounting earnings pressure in the first half of the year as destocking accelerates. In the wholesale market, Feitian Moutai prices edged lower recently, while Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 prices remained largely stable.