Deutsche Bank: Rivian — 1Q26 Preview, R2 Ramp, and Uber Partnership
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Deutsche Bank maintains a Buy rating on Rivian with a $23 target price, ahead of its first-quarter 2026 results. The bank estimates Rivian delivered 10,365 vehicles in 1Q26, representing a 20% year-over-year increase and landing above the midpoint of the company's 9,000 to 11,000 unit guidance. Analysts project 1Q26 revenue of $1.4 billion, including $470 million from software and services. Estimated EBITDA stands at negative $495 million, outperforming the consensus estimate of negative $508 million, alongside a free cash flow burn of negative $701 million.
Volkswagen committed an additional $1 billion in financing following successful winter testing of the Zonal architecture. The R2 production ramp is progressing smoothly, with full-year deliveries projected at approximately 63,000 units and an estimated EBITDA of negative $2 billion. The R2 launch strategy is pragmatic, prioritizing performance packages and limiting color and wheel options to ensure delivery timelines remain at a few weeks rather than months.
Furthermore, Rivian's robotaxi partnership with Uber provides up to $1.25 billion in capital, with an initial $300 million already committed. The first deployment phase targets 10,000 R2 vehicles across San Francisco and Miami by 2028, expanding to 25 cities by 2031. Although management acknowledged that the 2027 EBITDA breakeven target is no longer achievable, increased research and development expenses will be offset by Uber's strategic capital investment.