UBS: Copper 101 — Global Basic Materials
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UBS presents a comprehensive primer on copper market fundamentals, highlighting the metal's vital role across electrical, construction, and transportation sectors due to its unmatched conductivity and corrosion resistance. In 2025, global refined copper production is estimated at approximately 28 million tons, comprising 23 million tons from mined copper and 5 million tons from scrap material. Production is highly concentrated, with Chile, Peru, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, China, and the United States accounting for roughly 60% of global supply. Meanwhile, China dominates the demand landscape, consuming nearly 50% of global output, followed by Europe at 15% and North America at 9%.
Historically, copper demand has grown at a compound annual rate of approximately 2.5% over the past three decades. Looking forward, the global energy transition is poised to become the dominant structural growth driver, fueled by the rapid expansion of renewable energy generation, electric vehicle adoption, and extensive grid infrastructure upgrades. End-use demand is currently anchored by power grids and construction, each representing roughly 25% of total consumption.
The report emphasizes that mine production, rather than smelting or refining capacity, represents the primary structural bottleneck in the supply chain. Furthermore, copper is infinitely recyclable, with scrap accounting for nearly 30% of total copper consumption globally. UBS underscores that smelting capacity in China continues to expand, complemented by new facilities in the DRC, Indonesia, and India.