Goldman Sachs | Global Healthcare: Pharmaceuticals — Assessing Oral SERDs in Adjuvant Breast Cancer, an Emerging Blockbuster Class; Lilly's Imlunestrant an Undervalued Asset
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Key Views
Lilly's imlunestrant is the most underappreciated asset: GSe risk-adjusted peak sales ~$5.4bn versus Visible Alpha consensus of $2.1bn ($903mn approved 2L metastatic; $6.6bn adjuvant at 70% PoS), with the 2027 EMBER-4 readout a positive catalyst. Roche's giredestrant risk-adjusted estimate rises to $11.7bn (from $8.2bn); its unrisked $15.2bn peak sits ~55% above consensus, though KOLs suggest steady rather than rapid early uptake, leaving FY27/28 estimates 42%/25% below consensus. AstraZeneca's camizestrant unrisked peak of $6.2bn matches consensus; CAMBRIA-1 (2H27) contributes $3.3bn at 70% PoS.
Outlook
giredestrant lidERA PDUFA November 30, 2026; evERA PDUFA December 18, 2026; CAMBRIA-1 PCD April 2027; EMBER-4 PCD October 2027.
Recommended Securities
LLY Buy, PT $1,371 (from $1,367), 28x Q5-Q8 EPS; AZN Buy, ADR PT $219.00; Roche Neutral. Launched oral SERDs: Menarini Orserdu ~$166mn quarterly revenue; Lilly Inluriyo ~$75mn in 2Q26, beating expectations in its fourth quarter post-launch.
Key exhibits
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