Goldman Sachs: MiniMax Group (0100.HK) Key Focuses Post Share Unlock; Upside Skew to Risk-Reward; Buy
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Key Views
MiniMax stands out on cost efficiency. Its M3 model sits in a favorable ARR-maximization quadrant, combining attractive pricing with high token volume. The current valuation of 13x 2026E year-end ARR represents a steep discount to Chinese and global peers at similar stages. ARR doubled from US$300 million in February to US$400 million by end-May, with management confident in reaching US$1 billion by year-end 2026. Notably, M3 achieves performance comparable to DeepSeek V4 Pro (1.6T parameters) using only 0.4T parameters, while delivering over 2x cost savings.
Outlook
Near-term catalysts include the H3 video generation model release (within 1–2 weeks), the M3.1 upgrade focused on coding intelligence (July–August), a larger multi-trillion-parameter model (2H26), and potential Stock Connect inclusion around August 2026. The company has also announced A-share listing plans.
Recommended Securities
MiniMax Group (0100.HK) — Buy; 12-month target price HK$860.00. Key risks include model underperformance, slow monetization, IP issues, cash burn, and geopolitical tensions.
Key exhibits
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