Goldman Sachs: PICC Group (1339.HK/601319.SS) and PICC P&C (2328.HK) First Read — Profit and DPS Beat; Watch 2H Claims Outlook
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Goldman Sachs' first read flags 1H26 net profit and interim dividends at both PICC Group and PICC P&C beating its forecasts and Visible Alpha consensus, and it expects positive share-price reactions. PICC P&C earned Rmb32.3bn, up 32% year on year and 10% above estimates, with 2Q26 profit nearly doubling to Rmb23.7bn; the combined ratio improved 0.8pt to 94.0%, ahead of Ping An P&C and CPIC P&C at 95.1%, on tighter expense management — liability, motor and property expense ratios fell 2.6pt, 1.2pt and 1.1pt — driving Rmb15.4bn of underwriting profit, up 18%. Interim DPS of Rmb0.34 (+42%, 23% payout) far exceeded the Rmb0.27/0.28 expected.
PICC Group's net profit rose 41% to Rmb50.8bn, 23%/19% above estimates, with life insurance profit doubling on strong investment returns in a favorable 2Q26 market; DPS rose 47% to Rmb0.11. Goldman reiterates that motor underwriting has further room to improve on rising NEV mix and falling claim frequency, and that PICC P&C's leading share supports superior ROA. But net investment yields fell 30bps year on year (P&C 2.7%; group 3.1%) and non-motor lines remain catastrophe-exposed, so investors will focus on typhoon and flood claims for 2H26, FY26 targets, 2027 expense regulation and investment income. Ratings: PICC P&C Buy (HK$20.2); PICC Group H/A Buy/Sell (HK$7.0/Rmb6.4).
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
