Feedback from our Initiation (Data Centers + HVAC): VRT, NVT, TT, JCI, CARR
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Following the early June 2026 initiation of coverage on US multi-industry industrial stocks, Bernstein compiled investor feedback on five key data center and HVAC names: Vertiv (VRT), nVent (NVT), Trane (TT), Johnson Controls (JCI), and Carrier (CARR). Vertiv remains a long-term winner, but investor sentiment has turned cautious ahead of earnings. The market now expects a massive 2Q26 beat-and-raise to justify current valuations. nVent is viewed as being earlier in its growth trajectory, with fewer valuation concerns and no direct exposure to the 800V DC headwind. Trane is the least controversial name, commanding high management trust, though its valuation remains demanding. Johnson Controls offers a compelling transformation story with meaningful upside to the guided 50% incremental margin, though execution uncertainty persists. Carrier presents an attractive valuation with impressive data center momentum—raising its annualized run rate to $2.5 billion—but remains dragged down by mixed signals in the US residential market, which requires lower mortgage rates for a structural recovery. Bernstein assigns Outperform ratings to VRT, NVT, TT, and JCI, with target prices of $416, $218, $550, and $176, respectively. Carrier is rated Market-Perform with a $75 target. Key upcoming catalysts include 2Q26 results, where NVT guides 23-25% organic growth, and clarity on 800V DC architecture impacts, which are not expected to materially affect VRT until 2028.
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