Bernstein Long View: Urea — The Last Cheap Ton
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Bernstein's long-term urea note, 'The Last Cheap Ton,' builds its argument through a chart pack spanning agriculture, trade flows and low-carbon ammonia. Global grain ending stocks fell from roughly 360 million tonnes in 2016/17 to about 315 million tonnes in 2024/25, weakening the market's ability to absorb supply shocks, while global harvested area—up about 50% since 1960—has slowed from its earlier 1.2% compound annual growth rate. On supply, Russia, Qatar, Egypt and Iran together export 23.4 million tonnes of urea, roughly 57% of top-ten export volumes, concentrating seaborne supply among a small group of producers and heightening exposure to trade and logistics disruption. India's urea imports remain large but are diversifying, with Oman holding an important position as Chinese supply fluctuates. Blue and green production routes could significantly cut ammonia's emissions intensity, creating new differentiation between chemically identical tonnes. A MENA energy valuation screen shows UAE covered names with progressive dividend policies, Saudi names with attractive valuations, and Qatar offering the highest dividend yields; a SABIC AN financial summary is presented in millions of Saudi riyals.
Key exhibits
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