Goldman Sachs: European Hospital Capex – Q4 Tender Activity Moderating vs Strong Q3; Annualized Momentum Remains Strong

Goldman Sachs observes that European hospital capital expenditure tender activity moderated in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to an exceptionally strong third quarter, though annualized momentum remains robust. By tracking MRI and CT tender data across European public procurement platforms, the report estimates these tenders represent approximately 50% of the European hospital capital equipment market.

While Q4 tender values for the three key players—Healthineers, Philips, and GE Healthcare—declined by roughly 50% year-on-year, the full-year 2025 data tells a much more positive story. Total tender values for 2025 surged by approximately 200% compared to the prior year, with Philips experiencing a remarkable 400% increase, largely concentrated in Q3. On a 12-month rolling basis, tenders continue to demonstrate strong acceleration, providing a solid tailwind for future orders.

Goldman Sachs views these broader trends as highly encouraging for the hospital capital expenditure demand environment and revenue growth prospects. Despite typical historical volatility, the annualized trends correlate reasonably well with the EMEA revenue growth of hospital capex companies. Consequently, the firm favors Philips in Europe, rating it a Buy with potential for positive surprises at its February Capital Markets Day. In the United States, GE Healthcare remains a top pick, standing at an inflection point in its product cycle supported by a stable macroeconomic backdrop.