Citi: Zai Lab (ZLAB.O) — ESMO First-Line SCLC Data for Zoci (ZL-1310)
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Key Views
Benchmark references come from IMpower133 and CASPIAN: objective response rates (ORR) of roughly 60–68%, median progression-free survival (PFS) around five months, and Grade 3+ adverse events at approximately 62–67%. Given the high efficacy bar, Citi prioritizes evidence of more durable disease control, longer PFS, and fewer serious adverse events. The firm hopes for first-line PFS reaching high-single-digit months rather than a marginal one- to two-month improvement. The chemotherapy-free dual regimen could emerge as the preferred design owing to better tolerability.
Outlook
The ESMO poster is not expected to disclose brain metastasis data, although previously observed CNS activity may offer further differentiation. Zai Lab plans to initiate a first-line Phase III trial by end-2026. Citi maintains a Buy/High Risk rating with a 12-month target price of USD 44.00, representing an expected total return of 117.8% against the July 17, 2026 price of USD 20.20. The valuation uses a DCF model assuming a 10% WACC and 0% terminal growth beyond 2035.
Recommended Securities
- Zai Lab (ZLAB.O): Buy/High Risk; target price USD 44.00.
Key downside risks include adverse Chinese regulatory shifts, Vyvgart underperformance in generalized myasthenia gravis, and failure of pivotal studies.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 2
