Goldman Sachs Americas Asset Management: BAM and BN Investor Days Reaffirm Plans to Double the Business in Five Years
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Abstract
Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) and Brookfield Corporation (BN) used their annual investor days to reaffirm frameworks for doubling earnings power over five years, broadly consistent with prior forecasts and with room for upside. BAM's incremental drivers include a rising share of realized carry in distributable earnings (DE), balance-sheet seed capital beginning to contribute DE from 2026-28, roughly $250mn of capital markets/underwriting fees by 2031, and acquiring remaining partner-manager stakes (up to ~$350mn of incremental run-rate fee-related earnings on $4bn of deployment by 2031). BAM raised $129bn over the past five years and targets ~$175bn over the next, including ~$30bn infrastructure and ~$14bn private equity flagships.
BN guides pre-realization DE from $5.7bn (2026) to $11.6bn (2031), or $2.26 to $4.90 per share (17% CAGR); with realized carry and ~$2.2bn of planned deployment, total DE reaches $16.8bn, or $7.15 per share (24% CAGR). Wealth Solutions DE is targeted to reach $5.8bn by 2031, with insurance assets of ~$375-400bn. About 60% of ~$5bn of net carry expected over three years comes from fully returned funds. Goldman Sachs maintains Buy ratings: BAM target $55/C$77 (21% upside; DE/share $1.83/$2.20/$2.52 for 2026-28E); BN target $54/C$75 (45% upside; DE/share $2.90/$3.74/$4.51), preferring BN's near-term risk/reward after the pullback, with buybacks expected to accelerate in 2027.
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