Nomura: Bairun — Ready-to-Drink Cocktail Recovery, Whiskey Still Maturing
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Nomura initiates coverage of Bairun (002568.SZ) with a Buy rating and a target price of RMB 19.63, offering 37.3% upside from the June 25, 2026 closing price of RMB 14.30. The target is based on 28x 2026F price-to-earnings, a discount to the historical median.
Bairun is the dominant leader in China's ready-to-drink cocktail market, with its RIO brand holding the number one share for years. It is also China's largest whiskey producer by capacity and maturing cask inventory. Nomura forecasts revenue CAGR of roughly 10.0% and net profit CAGR of 13.6% from 2026 to 2028, with revenue reaching RMB 3.26 billion in 2026F, RMB 3.58 billion in 2027F, and RMB 3.92 billion in 2028F.
The RTD business should return to growth in 2026F, driven by product mix upgrades featuring higher retail prices and channel expansion into new retail formats like discount snack stores. Conversely, RTD revenue declined 3.4% year over year in 2025, contributing to the stock underperforming the CSI 300 by 23.5 percentage points over the past month.
For whiskey, new national standards in 2026 will raise entry barriers, benefiting established players. Bairun's Laizhou distillery holds the largest cask inventory in China, and the company launched five new whiskey products in 2025, expanding retail coverage to 31 provinces. While capital expenditure timelines may raise investor concerns regarding capital intensity and payback periods, Nomura believes whiskey can become a second growth curve. Key catalysts include RTD revenue exceeding expectations in the second and third quarters of 2026 and accelerated whiskey retail expansion.