Goldman Sachs Global Economics Analyst: September 4, 2026

Goldman Sachs' September 4, 2026 global economics review covers August PMIs, developed-market central bank meetings, and the U.S. labor report. The global composite PMI rose 0.9pt to 53.5 (manufacturing 52.3, services 53.7), with manufacturing input and output price gauges easing to 59.8 and 54.3; Canada's future-output expectations fell further on U.S. trade tensions. September's central bank calendar opened with the Bank of Canada holding at 2.25% under hawkish guidance and the RBNZ hiking 25bp to 2.75%. Goldman expects a 25bp ECB hike to 2.5% next week, with staff projections lifting 2026 and 2027 growth by 0.1pp each and 2027 headline inflation by 0.4pp; it sees September as more likely the final hike of the cycle, though the bar to a December third hike has fallen. U.S. August payrolls rose 162k (three-month average 71k) on rebounds in leisure/hospitality (+62k) and local government education (+42k); the unrounded unemployment rate rose to 4.14% and hourly earnings gained 0.3% m/m, consistent with gradual cooling. U.S. corporate AI adoption reached 22.4%, expected to hit 25.9% within six months. In Asia, China's PMIs improved while India's fell to a five-year low of 52.8; Korea's exports rose 2.8% m/m and the 2027 budget targets a swing from a 1.9% deficit to a 1.9% surplus. As a macro review, no securities are rated.