Goldman Sachs China Industrial Tech: 1Q26 Robot Automation Landscape Analyzer – How Are Market Shares Shifting?
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Goldman Sachs analyzes the shifting competitive landscape within the Chinese robotics automation industry for the first quarter of 2026. The market is experiencing an ongoing acceleration in domestic substitution, with local robot brands increasing their overall market share from 45% in 2025 to 48% in the first quarter of 2026. This trend is particularly pronounced in the collaborative robot sector, where domestic manufacturers now hold a dominant 70% share, representing a 5 percentage point year-over-year increase.
In contrast, foreign brands continue to lead the premium six-axis robot segment with a 60% share, though this represents a 3 percentage point decline from 2025. First quarter data reveals that total industrial robot sales reached 88,000 units. Small and large six-axis robots accounted for 27,000 and 26,000 units, respectively. SCARA robots totaled 22,000 units, while collaborative robots reached 11,000 units. Overall market growth moderated to a 12% year-over-year increase. Price competition has intensified, with average domestic prices falling 8%.
Goldman Sachs expects full-year 2026 industrial robot shipments to grow between 10% and 15%. Regarding specific equities, Estun is rated Buy with a target price of RMB 35. Inovance Technology is also rated Buy, with a target of RMB 80. Leaderdrive is rated Neutral with a target of RMB 120.
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