J.P. Morgan Hong Kong Property: Residential Market Updates
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Key Views
The luxury segment is recovering: in 2025, transactions valued at HK$30–50 million rose 14% YoY to 970 units, while those above HK$50 million climbed 29% to 842 units. Developer confidence is strengthening, with price increases at projects including Deep Water Pavilia II (+3%), KT Marina (+4.7%), and Grand Mayfair (+1.4%–7.0%). Several developers reduced discounts, including Le Mont (from 16% to 6%) and 101 Kings Road (from 27% to 16%).
Bank valuation indices turned positive, with sampled transactions clearing at an average 4% premium—Sorrento at Kowloon Station recorded a 15% premium. Secondary listings have declined 20% since May 2025, while weekend viewing appointments held at approximately 600 per week in February 2026.
Outlook
Stock market resilience, declining interest rates (HIBOR below 1%), and policy support—including stamp duty relief and the expanded Capital Investment Entrant Scheme—should sustain the upward price trend. No explicit price targets, risk factors, or specific security recommendations were provided.