Bernstein | Global Energy Storage: No Sign of a Storage Slowdown
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Bernstein sees no sign of a slowdown in global energy storage despite market concerns about 2027 sustainability. Chinese domestic tenders and overseas orders point to shipment growth for at least the next two quarters: Q3 2026 China tenders are expected at 208 GWh and overseas orders at 100 GWh, up 82% year-on-year. Full-year 2026 shipments should exceed 1,000 GWh, with 2027 reaching about 1,500 GWh, up 50%. The current gap between shipments and installations largely reflects a one-to-two-year lag from tender to commissioning. Bernstein forecasts 2026 global storage demand up 86% to 1,023 GWh, Chinese installations of 250 GWh (+37%), and 2030 global demand of 2,109 GWh—a 20% CAGR—as the global storage-to-wind-and-solar capacity ratio rises from 0.2 GWh/GW in 2025 to 0.8 GWh/GW by 2030. CATL, with roughly 22% of global storage battery shipments, is the preferred way to capture the expansion. CATL (300750.CH/3750.HK) is rated Outperform with targets of CNY 770.00 and HKD 740.00; Sungrow (300274.CH) Outperform at CNY 151.00; Tianqi Lithium (002466.CH/9696.HK) Outperform at CNY 80.00 and HKD 65.00.
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