Changjiang Securities Software & Services: Why We Favor Cloud — A Cloud ROIC Framework
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Changjiang Securities' August 24, 2026 software and services report makes the case for cloud through an ROIC lens. Using a GB300 NVL72 rack as the unit of analysis and a base case of 75% GPU utilization at $0.08 per GPU-hour (July 2026 reference), first-party clouds at top vendors generate roughly RMB11.2 billion of NOPAT, an ROIC of about 28.7%, with sensitivity of 23.2%–34.5% across 70%/75%/80% utilization and $0.075/$0.080/$0.085 pricing; even the bear case holds near 23.2%. Third-party cloud assumptions of roughly 25% GPU utilization and three-year depreciation (as of May 2026) yield NOPAT of about RMB7.12 billion on invested capital of about RMB52.87 billion, an ROIC of roughly 13.5%, ranging 8.0%–19.7%. Against funding costs—estimated at about 4.95% for Alphabet, 5.40% for Microsoft, 6.54% for Nebius and 9.00% for CoreWeave, assuming SOFR of 3.7% as of August 20, 2026—cloud returns comfortably exceed the cost of capital. The ROIC gap reflects business mix (CSPs lean on owned cloud plus MaaS with little leasing), GPU utilization differences, and inference-driven token volume growth. The bullish conclusion rests on the token business model, leasing prices and longer depreciation lives, with the framework drawing on Epoch AI scaling models and IDC capex forecasts. No individual-stock ratings or target prices are given.