Nomura Global AI Trend Tracker: Expert Call #67 - Optical Fiber Market Updates
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Nomura hosted its 67th AI expert call focusing on optical fiber market dynamics, featuring an industry specialist from a leading fiber company. The expert projected that global fiber demand will exceed 800 million fiber kilometers in 2026, significantly outpacing the available global capacity of 700 million fiber kilometers. This structural deficit of at least 100 million fiber kilometers is primarily driven by the rapid expansion of data centers, which are expected to account for 30% of total demand at roughly 250 million fiber kilometers. Notably, US data center demand alone is forecast to surge from 55 million fiber kilometers in 2025 to 150 million in 2026.
Pricing dynamics reflect this severe tightness. In China, spot prices for G.652D fiber have skyrocketed to RMB 100-120 per fiber kilometer, up sharply from just RMB 20 at the beginning of 2025. US market prices show similar upward momentum, with G.652D prices rising from $5 to $8-9 per fiber kilometer. Although Chinese fiber exports are growing rapidly, high tariffs on direct US shipments mean most products are exported as semi-finished goods to Southeast Asia and Latin America for final assembly into MPOs or AOCs before reaching the US.
Capacity expansion remains heavily constrained by bottlenecks in preform production. Adding preform capacity requires 12-24 months for US companies and 6-12 months for Chinese manufacturers. Among key suppliers, Corning holds a global capacity of 150 million fiber kilometers with limited additions expected for 2026.