Bernstein: Global Semi — South Korea Equipment Import Tracker (Feb 26): WFE +47%, Litho Triples YTD

Bernstein analyzes February 2026 South Korea customs data to assess semiconductor equipment import trends and their implications for covered companies. Adjusting for Lunar New Year distortions, combined January–February global equipment imports rose 47% year-over-year, while Japanese equipment imports climbed 19%. February alone saw global imports of $3.3 billion, up 33% year-over-year.

Lithography imports were exceptionally strong, with February Dutch imports reaching €1.1 billion—the second-highest on record—up 46% month-over-month and 150% year-over-year. The January–February lithography total doubled sequentially and tripled year-over-year, pointing to DRAM 1c node expansion. Bernstein estimates ASML's first-quarter South Korea system revenue at €2.04 billion, up 22% sequentially.

Test equipment imports from Japan and Malaysia rose 15% month-over-month and 113% year-over-year in February. A regression model suggests Advantest's March-quarter South Korea revenue could increase 13% sequentially, versus market expectations of a 1% overall company decline, signaling potential upside surprise.

Conversely, Tokyo Electron's relevant equipment categories—CVD, dry etch, cleaning, coater/developer, and RTP—showed flat sequential imports despite 8% year-over-year growth. The regression model indicates a 4% sequential revenue decline for the March quarter, below consensus expectations of 21% growth.

Samsung and SK hynix significantly exceeded fourth-quarter 2025 capex guidance, with above-seasonality import data supporting continued 2026 capex expansion driven by robust memory demand.

Rated stocks include Tokyo Electron (8035.JP, Outperform, ¥49,900), ASML (Outperform, $1,911.00), Advantest (6857.JP, Market-Perform, ¥26,000), Samsung Electronics (005930.KS, Outperform, KRW 140,000), and SK hynix (000660.KS, Outperform, KRW 750,000).