Bernstein Japan Autos & Auto Parts: Mobility Revolution — Shared Mobility, Beyond Ownership
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Key Views
Japan's vehicle ownership demand is slowing under structural pressures: the working-age population ratio fell from 68% (2000) to 59% (2025), total population declined from a 2009 peak of 128 million to 123 million, and real disposable income dropped 5% from 2020 peaks. Average vehicle ASPs rose 32% over a decade. Younger workers' driver's license holding rates fell from 87% to 67%.
Park24's Times Car Share dominates Japan's market with 66% fleet share and 58% member share. Ride-sharing launched in April 2024 under strict but gradually easing regulations. Taxi drivers declined 38% from 356,000 to 220,000 since 2000.
Outlook
Value is shifting from vehicle sales to mobility services. Toyota is best positioned to capture downstream value through its global fleet of approximately 150 million vehicles, data capabilities, and partnerships with Grab, Uber, and Waymo.
Recommended Securities
Bernstein rates Toyota (7203.JP, target JPY 4,200) and Suzuki (7269.JP, target JPY 2,550) Outperform; Honda (7267.JP, target JPY 1,300) Market-Perform; and Nissan (7201.JP), Subaru (7270.JP), and Mazda (7261.JP) Underperform.
Key exhibits
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