Bernstein Energy: Raising Battery Demand Estimates on ESS and Data Centers; CATL Target Lifted
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Bernstein significantly revised upward its global lithium-ion battery demand forecasts, primarily driven by surging energy storage system (ESS) growth and emerging data center requirements. The firm now projects 2026 total battery demand to grow 45% year-over-year to 2.6 terawatt-hours (TWh), up from the previous 32% growth estimate. ESS demand growth was aggressively upgraded from 50% to 86%, reflecting exceptional momentum where Chinese ESS shipments surged 117% year-over-year in the first quarter. Long-term forecasts also increased, with 2030 demand raised to 5.7 TWh and 2050 demand to 16.6 TWh.
Notably, Bernstein explicitly incorporated data center battery demand for the first time, projecting cumulative installations of 931 gigawatt-hours (GWh) by 2030, a thirteenfold increase from 2025. Electric vehicle battery demand growth was modestly reduced to 15% (1.2 TWh), although larger battery capacities in new EVs continue to drive absolute volume higher. As the world's largest battery manufacturer, CATL stands out as the primary beneficiary. Its EV market share has climbed to 40%, prompting Bernstein to raise its 2026 revenue estimate by 45% to RMB 616 billion. The firm upgraded its A-share target price for CATL to RMB 800, implying nearly 100% upside potential, while raising its H-share target to HKD 770. The A-share maintains an Outperform rating, while the H-share carries a Market-Perform rating.
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