Goldman Sachs: Leapmotor (9863.HK): 2026 Asia Leaders Summit Takeaways: Sequential Sales and Gross Margin Improvement Expected

At Goldman Sachs' 2026 Asia Leaders Summit in Hong Kong, Leapmotor management outlined steady-state monthly sales expectations of 30,000 units for the A10, 10,000 each for the A05 and D19, and 5,000 for the D99. The company targets 1.5–1.6 million total deliveries in 2027, up from 1 million in 2026, including 350,000–400,000 overseas units, supported by 5–6 new models launching next year (excluding any strategic introduction of a second brand). Management expects third- and fourth-quarter gross margin to improve sequentially, helped by scale economies, product mix optimization, stable lithium carbonate prices, deeper vertical integration via the CALB battery joint venture (stake raised from 30% to 60%), and semi-annual cost-downs; SG&A grows around 30% year-on-year but the expense ratio declines. Overseas expansion centers on the Stellantis joint venture: the first three years emphasize brand building, dealership networks and high-visibility marketing, with profits structurally unlocked from year four, plus 1–2 new international model launches annually. To address European local-content rules, Leapmotor is executing a two-step localization strategy in Spain, starting B10 CKD production in Zaragoza. Disclosures show the share price at HK$36.72; the visible report text lists no rating or target price.