J.P. Morgan: ASMPT (0522.HK) Strong SEMI Growth, Medium-Term Upside from 3D SoIC and CPO Expansion; PT Raised to HK$175
Summaries are public. PDF access requires an active membership; all members have the same access. Sign in
J.P. Morgan raised ASMPT's target price to HK$175 and maintained an Overweight rating following 1Q26 results and 2Q26 guidance that significantly exceeded expectations. First-quarter adjusted EPS reached HK$0.81, beating J.P. Morgan's estimate by 39% and Bloomberg consensus by 55%, marking the first substantial beat since 1Q24. The company guided for 30-40% revenue growth in 2026, driven by advanced packaging expansion and a recovery in mainstream semiconductor and SMT demand. Although HBM TCB orders were delayed due to SK Hynix's logic die redesign, a recovery is expected in 2H26. Furthermore, a potential relaxation of JEDEC stack height standards to 850-900 microns could extend TCB tool longevity to 20-24Hi HBM stacks. In logic TCB, rising 3D SoIC adoption should drive insertion at the chip-on-wafer step, with growth accelerating from 2H27. The photonics business posted 5x year-over-year revenue growth in 1Q26, and the transition to silicon photonics and co-packaged optics could expand the assembly TAM by 2-3x. SMT performance remained robust with progress on the divestiture process. J.P. Morgan raised FY26E and FY27E EPS estimates by 35% and 21% to HK$4.34 and HK$6.47, respectively. The new target price is based on approximately 27x the 12-month forward P/E multiple.