Goldman Sachs on Sunny Optical (2382.HK): XR and Automotive Expansion Underway; Mix Upgrades Support Growth; Neutral
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Goldman Sachs keeps Sunny Optical (2382.HK) at Neutral, rolling its valuation base to 2027E with an 18.3x target P/E (versus 19.6x implied previously) and raising its 12-month target from HK$82.3 to HK$83.3, 19.7% above the September 9 close of HK$69.60. First-half 2026 revenue of Rmb21.906 billion rose 11% year-on-year but fell 7% quarter-on-quarter, beating Goldman's estimate by 9% and consensus by 4%; net profit of Rmb2.0 billion was up 10% year-on-year (down 40% quarter-on-quarter), 10%/8% ahead of GS/consensus. Gross margin held at 19.5% as mix upgrades, share gains and new production lines partly offset rising memory prices, while the opex ratio improved. Goldman lifted 2026/27E net profit by 4%/2% to Rmb4.045/4.664 billion and revenue by 4%/1% to Rmb47.021/50.587 billion, introducing 2028E (revenue Rmb56.852 billion, net profit Rmb5.383 billion) driven by XR, automotive and optical instruments. Smartphone camera modules are moving to larger image planes, wide-angle OIS and larger apertures; an ultra-thin full-color AR display module has entered small-batch production. Despite long-term potential in edge devices, AI/AR glasses and action/360 cameras, smartphone-market saturation and a fair valuation sustain Neutral. Risks span lens competition, shipment growth, share shifts, opex pace and the renminbi.
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