UBS Channel Check: Mining Capex - Copper Project Approvals to Accelerate in 2026-27
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UBS highlights a forthcoming acceleration in copper mining capital expenditure, driven by tightening supply dynamics and robust demand. The analysis anticipates that final investment decisions for major copper projects will accelerate through 2026 and 2027, subsequently driving substantial capital expenditure increases from 2027 through 2030. Supply challenges are expected to peak by 2026, exacerbated by declining project approvals, operational disruptions, and production downgrades.
Despite these supply constraints, global copper mining capex has remained relatively stagnant, hovering around 40 billion USD nominally over the past five years. Adjusted for inflation, 2025 spending represents merely 30% of the 2013 peak. Looking forward, UBS estimates that 175 billion USD in project capital expenditure will be required by 2035 to adequately match demand growth. Furthermore, underlying capital intensity is projected to climb from 17,000 USD per ton to 25,000 USD per ton.
This projected surge in mining investment presents distinct opportunities across the industrial value chain. Engineering and construction firms should experience a meaningful increase in order intake. Similarly, mining machinery manufacturers and engine suppliers are positioned to benefit, albeit with a typical lag following project approvals. Meanwhile, agricultural equipment data reveals early signs of stabilization, highlighted by North American combine harvester retail sales returning to positive territory in December.