Nomura USD/CNY Fix Model: Projection 6.8077
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Nomura's USD/CNY central parity rate fixing model projects a value of 6.8077 for June 29, 2026. This forecast is 89 basis points lower than the previous model prediction of 6.8166 and 80 basis points higher than the last official spot closing rate. After incorporating the countercyclical factor, the adjusted model projection stands at 6.8120, which is 46 basis points below the prior official fixing.
The report breaks down the primary currency pair contributions driving the projection change, identifying the Russian ruble, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the Korean won as the most influential components. Unadjusted daily model errors exhibited significant volatility between January 2025 and April 2026. Separately, daily fluctuations in the USD/CNY fixing from November 2025 through June 2026 ranged within a band of approximately negative 150 to positive 150 basis points.
While Nomura does not outline specific price or rating outlooks, the report provides a calendar of prominent China-related events for the second half of 2026. Key milestones include the Politburo meeting in late July, the National Day Golden Week from October 4 to 7, the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November, the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December, and a potential presidential visit to the United States at year-end. These events could materially shape exchange rate policy and market sentiment.