Goldman Sachs: Innovent Biologics (1801.HK) - Strong FY25 Product Sales; Eyes on Mazdutide Strategy; Buy
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Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating on Innovent Biologics with a 12-month target price of HK$102.85, slightly reduced from HK$107.96, based on an updated discounted cash flow model. The company delivered a strong finish to fiscal 2025, achieving full-year product sales of 11.9 billion RMB, representing 45% year-over-year growth and crossing the 10 billion RMB milestone for the first time. This expansion was primarily driven by a robust biosimilars and new product portfolio.
Fourth-quarter product revenue reached approximately 3.3 billion RMB, aligning with expectations despite negative impacts from NRDL channel rebates. The new product portfolio, excluding Tyvyt, sustained solid momentum, generating an estimated 1.4 billion RMB in Q4. Crucially, mazdutide, Innovent's GLP-1 asset, achieved over 700 million RMB in sales within its first six months on the market, including roughly 400 million RMB in Q4.
Looking into 2026, the Chinese GLP-1 market is poised to become highly dynamic. Key catalysts include the March 2026 patent expiration of semaglutide and Eli Lilly's aggressive NRDL-driven price reductions for tirzepatide. Goldman Sachs updated its 2025-2027 EPS forecasts to 0.62, 1.74, and 2.54 RMB, respectively. The firm believes the current market valuation is overly pessimistic, failing to adequately price in the company's accelerating revenue trajectory and promising late-stage pipeline assets.