Americas Power & Energy Transition: Baseload, Rising — Bernstein's Power Forecast until 2030
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Key Views
Data centers represent the largest demand driver. The US accounts for 45% of global data center capacity, expected to reach ~50% by 2030, with data center electricity demand growing from ~260 TWh (6% of total) to roughly 490 TWh (~10%) under the base case. A 40 GW capacity expansion at a PUE of 1.25 yields approximately 230 TWh of incremental demand.
Manufacturing reshoring could add ~100 TWh if the domestic manufacturing share rises from 72% to 75%. Approximately 16 million new EVs (20% of light-vehicle sales by 2030) would contribute ~70 TWh, while cumulative heat pump installations of 20 million units add another ~70 TWh to residential demand.
On the supply side, natural gas remains the largest source at ~40% of generation, while solar posts the fastest growth. Bernstein manually incorporated announced nuclear restarts—Palisades (Q4 2025), Three Mile Island (Q1 2028), and Duane Arnold (Q4 2028).
Recommended Securities
Outperform: GEV, FRVO, NEE, VST, CEG, LNG. Market-Perform: BE, ENPH, TE, VG, CQP. Underperform: FSLR, ORA.
Key exhibits
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