A-Share Fund-Flow Thermometer (September 2026): An Existing-Funds Game; Balance Offense and Defense
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Ping An Securities' September fund-flow monthly identifies two August features: deleveraging is largely complete, leaving an existing-funds game with more balanced styles, while demand-side pressure eased markedly. On the supply side, new equity-fund launches fell 25.1% MoM to RMB 36.07 billion (a third straight decline), equity ETFs swung to roughly RMB 120 billion of net outflows, and private funds' July equity exposure dropped to a 2026 low of 59.4%. Offsetting this, Q2 insurance inflows more than doubled to RMB 263.3 billion with equity allocation at 16.2%, estimated northbound inflows reached RMB 248.9 billion, and margin financing turned to a RMB 46.37 billion net inflow spread across electronics and nonferrous metals (~RMB 10 billion each). Demand eased: August IPO plus refinancing fell 60% MoM to RMB 50.02 billion, net major-shareholder selling fell 22.5% to RMB 20.77 billion, and unlocks dropped 65.2% to RMB 177.76 billion, with September's expected RMB 242.4 billion manageable. All-A daily turnover fell 16.5% to RMB 2.3 trillion as the Shanghai index neared 4,000 on fading volume. The report expects rangebound trade with structural rotation and advises balancing offense and defense across AI subsectors (CPO, PCB, memory, compute chips), quality non-tech names (pharma, resources, non-banks) and dividend holdings (banks, coal).
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