Nomura: Meituan Issues FY25 Loss Warning
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On February 13, 2026, Meituan submitted a profit warning to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange forecasting a net loss of RMB 23.3–24.3 billion for fiscal year 2025, slightly exceeding the market consensus of RMB 23.6 billion. The fourth-quarter net loss alone is projected at RMB 15.0–16.0 billion, higher than the anticipated RMB 14.7 billion. These losses stem primarily from intensifying competition in China's local services sector and aggressive investments in overseas markets. The core local commerce segment is expected to record an operating loss of RMB 6.8–7.0 billion for the full year, broadly aligning with market estimates. Nomura believes the wider consolidated loss likely reflects expansion costs for Keeta, Meituan's overseas food delivery arm, which launched pilot operations in Brazil in October 2025 and faces established competitors like DiDi. Management expects the loss trend to persist into the first quarter of 2026. Over the past year, Meituan's shares have dropped 51.7%, sharply underperforming the 17.5% gain in the Hang Seng Index. Nomura maintains a Neutral rating with a sum-of-the-parts target price of HKD 107, noting that a near-term share price recovery remains challenging.