Morgan Stanley: Laopu Gold Asia Pacific Research Strategy View
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Morgan Stanley sees a 70–80% probability that Laopu Gold (6181.HK) rises in absolute terms over the next 30 days. The stock has corrected sharply—down 43% year-to-date, underperforming both the MSCI China and consumer discretionary indices—leaving short-term valuation highly attractive at 7.5x 2026E P/E with an 8% expected dividend yield. Fundamentals offer support: the gold price has stabilized and rebounded, peers' same-store sales are improving, and checks show queues recovering at some stores in early August. A further catalyst could arrive in late August, when an interim dividend of HK$20–22 per share—possible if the high-payout policy is maintained—would imply roughly a 10% trailing-twelve-month dividend yield. The bank values the stock at 11x 2026E earnings, with an implied PEG below peers, while cautioning that growth may slow in 2H26 and 2027 against high bases. Morgan Stanley rates Laopu Gold Overweight with a HK$590.00 target price, versus the HK$352.00 close on August 7.