Citi Global Supply Chain Research Highlights

Citi's biweekly supply-chain research compilation covers August 5 to September 1, 2026, addressing supply-chain disruptions and how companies and policymakers are responding. On Mexico, external accounts keep improving: Citi revised its 2026 trade-balance forecast from a US$12bn deficit to a US$5bn surplus, and narrowed the expected current-account deficit from 1.0% of GDP to 0.2%. Auto exports remain pressured by US tariffs, but non-auto manufacturing exports—likely tied to AI-related demand and computing trade flows—have more than offset that weakness, while soft domestic demand and persistent USMCA uncertainty restrain capital-goods imports. On Korea, Citi lifted its 2026 current-account surplus forecast from 18.3% to 18.9% of GDP on a continuing 2H26 semiconductor upcycle, with August seasonally adjusted semiconductor exports hitting a record high. Citi's equity research team notes Samsung Electronics said customer interest in multi-year memory agreements exceeds its target of locking in 60–70% of total capacity, while SK Hynix's long-term agreement (LTA) benchmark covers 50% of capacity. Citi believes such LTAs will strengthen the sustainability of semiconductor exports and current-account surpluses over the coming years.