Citi: China Materials — Takeaways from Gold Expert Call with Antaike
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On February 11, 2026, Citi hosted a gold expert call with Antaike analyst Shi Heqing, who attributed the sharp gold price rally since late 2025 primarily to escalating geopolitical risks. He identified USD 5,500 per ounce as a potential resistance level, noting that at this price the total value of gold assets would equal the outstanding US national debt for the first time since the 1980s. Short-term support sits at USD 5,000 per ounce. He remains constructive on gold, citing Federal Reserve rate cuts, rising investment demand, elevated geopolitical risks, and sustained central bank purchases. He projects a 2026 average gold price range of USD 5,000–6,000 per ounce.
On the supply side, 2025 global gold supply reached 5,076 tonnes, with mine production at 3,672 tonnes (up 0.6% year-on-year) and recycled gold at 1,404 tonnes (up 2.9%). China led globally with 552 tonnes of supply. The 2024 global gold exploration budget fell 7% year-on-year to USD 5.6 billion, with major discoveries declining over the past two decades. Metals Focus expects mine output to plateau gradually.
Global demand totaled 4,999 tonnes in 2025, up 8.0% year-on-year. Jewelry demand fell 19% to 1,639 tonnes, central bank purchases dropped 21% to 863 tonnes, while bar and coin investment surged 16% to 1,374 tonnes. Post-pandemic central bank annual purchases averaged 785 tonnes, up from 497 tonnes previously. Shi expects central banks in China, Russia, and India to continue increasing gold reserves under de-dollarization trends, remaining a key demand driver.