Goldman Sachs COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (601919) Post-Results NDR: 2026 Oversupply Narrows, Europe Contract Rates Slightly Down
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Goldman Sachs published a report on March 27, 2026, summarizing takeaways from a non-deal roadshow with COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (601919) management. Management expects industry net supply growth to narrow to just 1 percentage point in 2026, with demand growth slowing to 3-4% and total supply growth at 4-5%, excluding any Hormuz disruption impacts. First-quarter volumes were affected by front-loaded shipments from the fourth quarter of 2025 but began rebounding in late March. Most long-term Europe contracts have been renewed at prices slightly down year-over-year, reflecting lower spot rates during the negotiation period. Since late February, fuel costs have doubled, and the company is negotiating cost-sharing with customers, though major hub ports report no bunkering shortages. Potential new ship orders may prioritize 2,000-3,000 TEU vessels to replace aging capacity and reduce high rental costs. Load factors improved to 95% post-Lunar New Year. Management reaffirmed a 30-50% dividend payout ratio guidance through 2027 and noted completed buybacks totaling 866 million shares for RMB 9.8 billion. Goldman Sachs maintained its Sell rating with an A-share target price of RMB 13.50 and an H-share target price of HKD 10.60, implying downside of 11.5% and 29.1%, respectively.