J.P. Morgan: Zijin Mining / Zijin Gold International — Slight Miss but Maintain Top Pick
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Key Views
The shortfall stemmed from lower gold prices, sub-50% production completion rates, and elevated costs including diesel and royalties. H1 gold output of 47 tonnes and copper of 534,000 tonnes represented 42% and 48% of J.P. Morgan's full-year estimates, respectively.
Outlook
Despite likely downward revisions to earnings forecasts, J.P. Morgan maintains Zijin Mining as a top pick, expecting most production growth to materialize in 2H 2026. Investors should monitor commodity price trends, US–Iran negotiations, and interest rate decisions.
Recommended Securities
- Zijin Mining A (601899.SS) — Overweight; target RMB 46.00 (Dec 2027)
- Zijin Mining H (2899.HK) — Overweight; target HKD 50.00
- Zijin Gold International H (2259.HK) — Overweight; target HKD 170.00
Valuations are DCF-based with WACC ranging from 8.5% to 13%.