JPMorgan North America Metals & Mining: Sunday Morning Metals — Steel and Base Metals Preview; Q3 Preview Webinar October 13
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JPMorgan's Sunday Morning Metals frames its Q3 North American metals and mining preview—ahead of an October 13 webinar—across steel, base metals, gold and battery materials. In steel, supply-driven price support persists: HRC lead times stretch into Q1 2027, Q4 seasonal outages loom and inventories are extremely low. The bank raises its FY2027 HRC forecast 6% to $1,100/ton, easing to $1,000/ton in FY2028. Aluminum faces a supply surplus and lagged cost pressure—caustic soda, about 15% of alumina costs, peaked at multi-year highs in March 2026 and is gradually easing—with roughly $10–15 million of Q4 headwind flagged. Copper shows no global shortage, but S232 tariffs pose binary dislocation risk while low ex-US inventories underpin prices. Gold ETFs drew $10 billion in September, lifting Q3 inflows to a record $31 billion. Sigma Lithium confirmed a restart, meeting 2027 guidance of 330ktpa SC5 without added capacity, and Nucor is investing $105 million to add about 120,000 square feet in Indiana. Top picks: Nucor, Commercial Metals and Freeport-McMoRan (all Overweight); Lithium Americas is Overweight; Reliance is Neutral with Q3 beat potential; Alcoa is Neutral, viewed cautiously.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 1
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Exhibit 9
Exhibit 10
Exhibit 11
