Morgan Stanley: US Technology — Global Cloud Capex Tracker: Another Year of 60%+ Growth
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Morgan Stanley reports that consensus expectations for global cloud capital expenditure in 2026 have reached $735 billion, marking a third consecutive year of over 60% year-over-year growth. This figure represents a 22-percentage-point upward revision—equivalent to roughly $120 billion—from pre-4Q25 earnings estimates. Aggregate cloud capex for 2025-2026 now stands at $1.2 trillion, up $500 billion from forecasts a year ago. The capital intensity of the top eleven cloud spenders has surpassed 25%, triple the 2014-2023 historical average. Morgan Stanley's own estimate for 2026 cash capex by these top hyperscalers is $795 billion, exceeding consensus by 8%. Fourth-quarter guidance from Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft confirms accelerating AI infrastructure investment. Meta projects 2026 capex of $115-$135 billion, primarily targeting its Meta Superintelligence Lab and AI infrastructure. Google guides to $175-$185 billion, split roughly 60% for servers and 40% for data centers and networking. Amazon anticipates approximately $200 billion in capex. Exponential growth in monthly token processing, accelerating cloud revenue, and expanding data center commitments suggest continued upward pressure on capex estimates, presenting a clear tailwind for exposed component suppliers.