Goldman Sachs China Telecom Sector: 5G BTS Deployment Decreased; March Service Revenues Down 2%
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Goldman Sachs reports that China deployed 49,000 5G base stations in March 2026, representing a 30% year-on-year decline from 70,000 in March 2025. For the first quarter, 120,000 new 5G base stations were added, lower than 1Q25's 144,000 and accounting for only 22% of the full-year forecast of 540,000, below the three-year first-quarter average of 29%. Telecom service revenue fell 2% year-on-year in March to RMB 149 billion. Despite the domestic deployment slowdown, base station production surged 71% year-on-year in March, with export volume growing 11% and export value rising 40%, indicating robust overseas demand. Fiber optic cable production declined 6% year-on-year, though export volume grew 20% to 3,224 tons and export value surged 263%. CCL export prices rose 60% year-on-year and 15% month-on-month, while PCB net export value grew 55%. The 5G subscriber base expanded by 19 million in March to a cumulative 1.3 billion. China Mobile and China Telecom achieved 5G user penetration rates of 66% and 71% respectively by the end of 1Q26. The three major Taiwanese telecom operators reported combined revenue growth of 6% year-on-year to NT$47 billion in March. Goldman Sachs projects 540,000 new 5G macro base stations for full-year 2026.