Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ): Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day: Remain Cautious on Industry Bottom-Out; Focus on Channel
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Key Views
Current retail sell-through remains below pre-policy levels, though it has improved sequentially from the trough in June when turnover nearly froze. For 2025, the Guojiao premium product mix may decline while mid-to-low-end products gain share. Within the Guojiao brand, the lower-ABV variant is rising while shipments of the premium high-ABV version are being deliberately restrained.
Looking into 2026, the company will increase channel support to protect distributor profitability, as Guojiao 1573 wholesale prices have declined since early 2025. Investments will tilt toward mid-to-low-end products and untapped regional markets and consumption scenarios. Management will exercise greater caution on operating costs and capex while continuing to invest in market share growth.
Outlook
No explicit catalysts or validation timelines were provided. Investors should monitor channel support effectiveness and destocking progress.
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Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ): Rating: Neutral; 12-month target price: RMB 119; Current price: RMB 116.59; Upside: 2.1%. Valuation is based on 15.7x 2027E P/E, discounted to end-2026 at an 8.3% cost of equity.