UBS Japan Autos, Auto Parts and Auto Technology: Industry Key Takeaways
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This report offers a comprehensive review of the global automotive industry, centering on Japanese OEM valuations, financial forecasts and market dynamics. UBS expects global BEV/PHEV sales growth to slow in 2026 to 23.4 million units, with penetration reaching 26% worldwide—8% in the US and 64% in China. Toyota's US inventory is short, the only major OEM running below normal, and hybrid supply constraints have slowed its sales growth. Currency swings matter: Toyota's FY3/28E operating profit sensitivity is ¥7.75 billion per one-unit move in yen/dollar, while Honda's FY3/27 operating profit forecast was raised 30%. UBS forecasts Toyota's FY3/28 operating profit at ¥458.1 billion. India and Pakistan stand out as major two-wheeler markets, with Hero holding the leading share in India. Buy ratings cover Toyota, GM, Ford, Suzuki, Isuzu, BYD, Li Auto, Great Wall Motor, Geely and Volvo Trucks; Nissan and Subaru are rated Sell. The analysis blends macro factors such as labor force participation and regional demand with sum-of-the-parts valuations and operating profit sensitivity to currency and electrification timing.
Key exhibits
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