JPMorgan: Global EV & Battery Report, July 2026 — Strong European Plug-in Share, Moderating China, Soft US; Energy Storage Momentum Continues
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JPMorgan's July 2026 global EV and battery report puts July EV/PHEV sales at 1.3 million units worldwide, up 2% year-on-year, lifting overall penetration to 37%. Europe was the main growth engine: EU-5 sales surged 52% with penetration reaching 36%. China's NEV segment stayed resilient despite a softening passenger-vehicle market, with July retail sales of 1 million units—63% penetration of 1.6 million total passenger sales—though JPMorgan's China autos team remains cautious on a second-half 2026 rebound, viewing consumer confidence as the binding constraint and policy support as only marginal. The US was weak, with July EV/PHEV sales down 38% and penetration at 7%. Asian EV supply-chain stocks rallied over the past month: Korea (+13%) and China (+6%) outperformed while Japan (-9%) lagged. Q2 OEM results showed divergent electrification progress: Ford beat expectations and can expand its Kentucky plant's battery capacity from 20GWh to 40GWh, online in Q4 2027; GM took an additional US$2.3bn of electrification charges, bringing the total since 2H25 to US$10.9bn, while guiding full-year EV losses US$1.0-1.5bn better on capacity optimization; Volkswagen faces a €1.6bn price/mix headwind from higher EV incentives and adverse mix. Rated names include BYD A/H, CATL A/H, Hyundai, Kia, LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI, L&F and LG Chem (all Overweight); POSCO (Neutral); Ecopro BM and POSCO Future M (Underweight).