Nomura: USD/CNY Fix Model Projection — 6.7827
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Nomura published its USD/CNY central parity rate model projection dated May 26, 2026. The model forecast value is 6.7827, representing a 491-basis-point decline from the prior projection of 6.8318 and sitting 10 basis points below the previous official spot close. After incorporating the counter-cyclical factor, the adjusted model projection stands at 6.8034, which is 284 basis points lower than the preceding fixing.
The four currency pairs making the largest weighted contributions to the projected change are the Korean won, the Turkish lira, the Russian ruble, and the Australian dollar. Historical model error data without the counter-cyclical factor adjustment, spanning January 2025 through April 2026, shows a maximum error of approximately negative 1,800 basis points. Daily USD/CNY fixing changes between November 2025 and May 2026 ranged within roughly negative 150 to positive 150 basis points.
The significant downward revision in the fixing projection reflects dollar weakness or sustained yuan appreciation pressure. The narrowing adjustment after applying the counter-cyclical factor suggests authorities may be moderating the appreciation pace. Nomura also outlined key upcoming events that could influence exchange rate policy, including the late-July 2026 Politburo meeting, the October Golden Week, the November APEC summit in Shenzhen, the mid-December Central Economic Work Conference, and President Xi Jinping's US visit.